hoser report: The NEXT Middle Eastern War

TL;DR

The UAE, Israel, and Ethiopia are forming an alliance to control Red Sea trade routes, clashing with a Saudi-Egypt-Somalia-Turkey bloc over ports, separatist states, and regional dominance.

Key Points

• 1.Two rival blocs are redrawing the Middle East and Horn of Africa. The UAE-Israel-Ethiopia alliance (the 'Berber Axis') is competing against a Saudi Arabia-Egypt-Somalia-Turkey bloc and Iran's sphere, all fighting over control of the Red Sea and Bab-el-Mandeb chokepoint.
• 2.The UAE built a ring of separatist militia allies to dominate regional waterways. Through DP World port investments and military bases, the UAE backed separatists in Yemen, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia — all fighting Islamist factions the Emirates oppose, including Muslim Brotherhood-linked groups.
• 3.South Yemen's STC declared independence in December 2025 but collapsed within weeks. The Southern Transition Council seized Hadhramaut and Mahra, declared 'South Arabia,' but Saudi Arabia issued a 24-hour evacuation ultimatum, bombed the port of Mukalla, and the STC disbanded on January 9, 2026.
• 4.Israel recognized Somaliland as an independent state on December 26, 2025. This made Israel the first country to do so; Somalia immediately cut all ties with the UAE (seizing Emirati ports including Bosaso), while the UAE avoided joining the Arab League in condemning the move.
• 5.Ethiopia's desperation for sea access drives its alliance with the UAE and Israel. Landlocked after losing Eritrea, Ethiopia pays Djibouti $1.5 billion annually for port access; in exchange for Somaliland recognition, Ethiopia was offered coastline access and a stake in Ethiopian Airlines.
• 6.The UAE's Sudan strategy centers on backing the RSF militia and its gold trade. Dubai is the world's largest gold market, with African gold supplying over half its volume; the UAE smuggled weapons to the RSF through Libya, Chad, and Somalia despite the RSF's brutal siege of Al-Fasher being called the worst humanitarian crisis of the 2020s.
• 7.Ethiopia and Egypt are in a cold-war-like standoff over the Grand Renaissance Dam. Built on the Blue Nile, the dam threatens Egypt's water supply — 90% of the Nile's water originates there — causing the two countries to take opposite sides on Somalia, Sudan, and Israel alignment.
• 8.The Mogadishu Axis hardened in response to the Berber Axis's moves. Turkey supplied Somalia with jets and navy support, Egypt signed a defense pact sending troops, and Saudi Arabia signed a military cooperation MOU with Somalia — all escalating against the UAE-Israel-Ethiopia bloc.