Warning: The Inflation Crisis is NOT Over 🚨

TL;DR

Inflation surged from 2.4% to 3.3% in one month, driven by the Iran war's impact on oil and the Strait of Hormuz, with more price increases ahead.

Key Points

• 1.The Iran war has crippled oil supply through the Strait of Hormuz. Only 12 ships passed through in two days post-ceasefire versus 135 per day before the war — just 5% of normal traffic — keeping oil prices 50% above pre-war levels.
• 2.Producer prices signal consumer pain is still incoming. The Producer Price Index rose 7% in a single month, meaning manufacturing cost increases haven't hit consumers yet; oil's role in plastics and shipping will push import prices higher across the board.
• 3.Food, housing, and the broader economy face compounding inflation pressure. 30% of the world's fertilizer transits the Strait of Hormuz, driving food prices up; combined with existing tariffs, elevated inflation will keep mortgage rates high and slow the housing market, though a return to 2022's 9% is not expected.