Home Sales Just COLLAPSED To The Lowest Level in 4 Years

TL;DR

Overall Summary: January existing home sales dropped 8.4% month-over-month to an annual pace of 3.91 million—the biggest monthly decline in 4+ years—while median prices appear stable only because high-end sales skew the data.

Key Points

• 1.Sales down 4.4% compared to January 2024, falling 200,000 below economist predictions
• 2.Decline hit every US region, not just areas with harsh winter weather
• 3.Median home price up 0.9% is misleading—luxury sales ($2M+) are inflating the number while average homes stagnate
• 4.1.1 million homeowners now underwater (7-year high), up 60% from early 2025
• 5.Homebuilders using rate buydowns instead of price cuts—KB Homes warns buyers are overpaying and will be underwater if they sell soon
• 6.Weak job market contributing: only 180,000 jobs created in all of 2025 after revisions, job openings at 5-year low
• 7.25% of 2024 VA loans and 17% of 2024 FHA loans already underwater—low down payment buyers hit hardest