OpenAI's $110 Billion Funding Round Is Mostly Fake

TL;DR

Of the $110 billion announced, only $25 billion is confirmed imminent — the rest is conditional, borrowed, or potentially never agreed to.

Key Points

• 1.Amazon's $50B splits into $15B due March 31st and $35B only triggered by an IPO or undisclosed milestones (likely AGI), while OpenAI must pay Amazon $100B back in cloud services
• 2.SoftBank's $30B arrives in three $10B tranches across three months because SoftBank doesn't have the cash — they're borrowing against assets they still need to sell
• 3.Nvidia's $30B has no SEC Form 8-K filing despite the announcement being made over 4 days ago, raising serious doubt a binding agreement was ever signed — Nvidia previously pledged $100B that never materialized
• 4.OpenAI's user growth metrics are misleading: ChatGPT Go launched at $8/month (vs. $20 for Plus), and Codeex's "tripled" user base grew because they gave it away for free
• 5.Only 59 million of 900 million weekly active users pay anything — a 6.6% conversion rate — and Sam Altman has admitted OpenAI loses money even on its $200/month Pro plan
• 6.OpenAI's total spending commitments include $100B to Amazon, $300B to Oracle, $250B to Microsoft, plus billions to CoreWeave and Google, with no clear explanation of how any of it gets paid