The Return of Kremlin Terrorism || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Russia is rebuilding Cold War-era terror cell tactics, this time recruiting far-right nationalist groups in Europe rather than leftist radicals.

Key Points

• 1.A Kiev supermarket hostage incident signals Russia's revived interest in sponsored terrorism. A Moscow-born man previously from Bachmut took seven hostages — the first mass shooting event in Ukraine during the conflict — prompting Kremlin strategists to revisit Cold War distraction tactics.
• 2.Russia has two pools of recruits inside Ukraine. Pre-war, roughly one-fifth of Ukrainians were ethnic Russians and another fifth were Russian-speaking Ukrainians; even with Russian atrocities alienating most, a small number of collaborators willing to act violently is all that's needed.
• 3.Far-right European groups are fracturing, making them vulnerable to Russian exploitation. Hard-right political forces are broadly in retreat across Europe, and as their electoral prospects fade — accelerated by Trump alienating allies — hardened zealots within those movements are more likely to turn to violence.
• 4.Russia is now cultivating the nationalist right rather than the communist left. Unlike Cold War support for hard-left groups, Moscow is targeting neo-Nazis, nationalist groups, and biker gangs — though Western counter-terrorism capabilities built since 2001 mean many attempts will be caught and exposed.