Something Big Is Happening

TL;DR

Overall Summary: AI is rapidly improving and threatening software/data companies, causing massive sell-offs in SaaS stocks while money flows into AI-immune businesses like Costco and Texas Roadhouse.

Key Points

• 1.AI went from failing basic math in 2022 to writing most engineers' code by late 2025—this exponential improvement is crushing software stock valuations
• 2.SaaS companies destroyed: Adobe -44%, Salesforce -43%, Atlassian -72%, Monday.com -80%, Dualingo -69%
• 3.Financial data companies hit too: S&P Global -22%, Moody's -16%, Equifax -24%, FactSet -57%
• 4.Big tech capex spenders (Microsoft, Amazon, Meta) selling off over fears that massive AI infrastructure spending will drag margins indefinitely
• 5.Money flowing into "AI-immune" stocks: Costco, Walmart, Texas Roadhouse, Delta Airlines—anything without AI threat or heavy capex
• 6.Joseph believes S&P Global and Moody's are oversold—their proprietary data and institutional trust won't be easily replaced by AI
• 7.Bill Ackman just bought Meta as 10% of his portfolio at 22x forward earnings, calling AI concerns overblown for a company already proving AI returns
• 8.Joseph's strategy: stay invested in big tech capex spenders and AI-insulated companies, betting narrative eventually loses to earnings growth