BREAKING: The FED Cancels ALL Rate Cuts - Stock Market Melt-Up Has Begun!

TL;DR

The Fed paused all 2024 rate cuts due to rising oil-driven inflation, yet stocks surged 10% in 10 days toward potential melt-up territory.

Key Points

• 1.The Fed has canceled all rate cuts, with the next expected in October 2027. Oil surging from $57 to over $100/barrel raises inflation by ~0.7%, pushing CPI back to 3.3% and forcing the Fed to freeze any easing.
• 2.The stock market melt-up is historically unprecedented in speed. The S&P 500 rallied 10% in 10 days, the NASDAQ posted a 13-day win streak (most in 13 years), and the market went from oversold to overbought in just 11 days — the second fastest on record.
• 3.Consumer sentiment hitting a 70-year low while stocks hit all-time highs signals a dangerous disconnect. Wall Street prices in 12-month future earnings; Main Street feels today's gas prices, groceries, and job insecurity — historically, peak pessimism has been a strong buy signal.
• 4.Jerome Powell's final Fed meeting confirmed no rate cuts, and Kevin Warsh is set to replace him on May 15. Warsh claims monetary independence from Trump's rate-cut pressure, but markets note that new Fed chairs historically trigger an average 16% stock market decline.
• 5.Bitcoin surged 13% alongside the S&P 500's 12% gain, driven by institutional inflows. Strategy overtook the US government as the largest Bitcoin holder; Schwab, Citi, and Goldman Sachs are launching crypto products; the presenter doubled down buying Bitcoin ETFs at the bottom and is up ~25% in two months.
• 6.Housing prices are forecast to grow 0% nationally over the next 12 months per Zillow and JPMorgan. Sunbelt markets (Texas, Florida) face the largest drops after massive runups; mortgage rates may fall to just 5.7% by 2030, boosting purchasing power by only ~5% — not enough to unlock affordability for most buyers.