Economist fact-checks MAGA. Do migrants threaten Europe?

TL;DR

Mass migration has not made Europe more dangerous — homicide and crime rates have fallen across Europe even as immigration surged.

Key Points

• 1.Trump's claim that 72% of Swiss prisoners are foreign-born is technically true, but he omits that UK, US, Australia, and New Zealand immigrants are *underrepresented* in prisons.
• 2.Europe's homicide rate dropped dramatically since the 1990s despite mass migration: Germany -36%, Spain -50%, France -15%, Italy -82%.
• 3.The "civilizational erasure" claim is debunked: Muslims grew from ~4% to ~6% of Europe's population between 2000–2020, projected to reach ~15% by 2050 — comparable to the Black share of the US population today.
• 4.Immigrant overrepresentation in prisons is better explained by poverty, youth demographics, and pre-trial detention bias than by cultural criminality.
• 5.Professor Pinotti's research shows immigrants may be *replacing* native criminals in drug dealing rather than increasing total crime — and granting legal status cuts immigrant crime probability by 50%.
• 6.Real problems exist: chaotic 2015–16 arrivals caused a short-term burglary spike in Germany, second-generation immigrants in Denmark are *more* likely to be imprisoned than their parents, and a Swedish study found 63% of rape convictions involved people with immigration backgrounds.
• 7.The key policy takeaway: orderly migration with legal work access and integration support prevents crime; isolated ghettos and work bans create the conditions that lead to it.