What if the Islamic Revolution Never Happened?

TL;DR

Without the 1979 Islamic Revolution, Iran would likely be a nuclear-armed, modernized US ally — tracing back to the 1953 CIA-backed coup that sparked decades of anti-Western resentment.

Key Points

• 1.- The 1953 CIA/UK-backed coup overthrew democratic PM Mohammad Mosaddegh, who had nationalized Iran's oil from the Anglo-Iranian Oil Company, and installed the autocratic Shah Reza Shah Pahlavi.
• 2.- The Shah's 'White Revolution' — land reforms, privatization, women's rights, and rapid Westernization — alienated the Muslim population and created a wealth gap, fueling opposition led by exiled cleric Ayatollah Khomeini.
• 3.- In Scenario 1 (no 1953 coup), Mosaddegh's democratic government retains oil revenues, boosts citizen welfare, and Iran becomes a secular Middle Eastern power with normalized Western relations.
• 4.- In Scenario 2 (no Islamic Revolution), Khomeini dies before gaining influence, the Shah's son Reza Pahlavi inherits power, Iran modernizes like China/Japan, and the Iran-Iraq War and Gulf War never occur.
• 5.- Without the revolution, Iran would retain its 1950s 'Atoms for Peace' nuclear program and become a nuclear-armed US ally, potentially fighting alongside Western nations in Afghanistan post-9/11.