Why U.S. Allies in Asia Are Caught Between War, Trade and Trump | WSJ

TL;DR

Asian U.S. allies face simultaneous pressure from Middle East conflict disrupting oil supplies, Trump's trade demands, and China's growing military and economic coercion.

Key Points

• 1.Asia's oil dependency makes the Middle East conflict an economic crisis. About 80% of Asia's oil flows through the Strait of Hormuz; the Philippines declared a state of emergency, and India and Pakistan face fuel shortages, while Japan, Korea, and China have reserves to weather short-term disruption.
• 2.China's military spending dwarfs Japan's at roughly 6-to-1, or $300 billion vs. Japan's budget. Japan is steadily building defenses, especially on its Southwestern islands, driven by fears that a Chinese takeover of Taiwan would move China's border closer and block the Taiwan Strait — Japan's critical energy and export shipping lane.
• 3.Japan secured a trade deal with Trump at roughly 15% tariffs in exchange for $550 billion in U.S. investments. Prime Minister Takaichi's Washington summit went well personally, but Trump also pressured Asian allies to assist militarily in reopening the Strait of Hormuz, invoking the Pearl Harbor reference as a diplomatic jab that Tokyo largely shrugged off.
• 4.Asian governments are clear-eyed that the pre-Trump world order is gone permanently. Officials in Tokyo, Seoul, and elsewhere do not expect tariffs to be rolled back or alliances reset, and are focused on keeping the U.S. engaged rather than waiting for a return to prior norms, especially as Trump may shift focus to midterm politics.