The Strange, New Alliance Reshaping The Middle East

TL;DR

The UAE, Israel, and Ethiopia have formed a covert alliance using ports, militias, and separatist states to control Red Sea trade routes against Saudi Arabia and Iran.

Key Points

• 1.The UAE-Israel-Ethiopia alliance, dubbed the 'Berbera Axis,' is built around controlling the Red Sea choke point. The Bab el-Mandeb strait narrows to just 30 km and sits at one of Earth's most critical trade routes; all three members share the goal of dominating it through ports, airbases, and proxy militias.
• 2.The UAE has built a ring of separatist proxy states across Yemen, Libya, Sudan, and Somalia. It backs the Southern Transition Council in Yemen for access to 1,200 km of coastline, funds Khalifa Haftar in eastern Libya for military airfields, and operates DP World ports across the region — 80% owned by Dubai World, chaired by the UAE president's uncle.
• 3.Israel joined the alliance primarily to gain diplomatic recognition it has been denied for decades. The UAE brokered Abraham Accords in 2020, getting Bahrain, UAE, and Morocco to normalize ties; Israel also recognizes Ethiopia as its biggest African ally, with Ethiopian Jews making up ~2% of Israel's population and Ethiopia ranking in the top 10 IDF volunteer-sending countries.
• 4.Ethiopia's landlocked status after losing Eritrea drives its alliance with the UAE and Israel. With 130+ million people relying on Djibouti's single port — costing $1.5 billion/year (~1% of GDP) — PM Abiy Ahmed has made sea access a top priority, signing a memorandum with Somaliland offering recognition in exchange for port access and 20 km of coastline.
• 5.On December 26, 2025, Israel became the first country to recognize Somaliland, triggering a regional crisis. Somalia severed all ties with the UAE, seized Emirati-run ports including Bosaso, and the Mogadishu Axis — Saudi Arabia, Egypt, Turkey, and Somalia — hardened against the Berbera Axis in response.
• 6.The UAE's support for Sudan's Rapid Support Forces represents its most isolated and controversial gamble. The RSF, backed by Emirati gold trade interests (Dubai is the world's largest gold market, with Africa supplying over half), has been accused of mass civilian killings during the siege of El Fasher — so severe that Saudi Crown Prince MBS urged Trump to pressure the UAE to stop.
• 7.The Ethiopia-Egypt rivalry over the Grand Renaissance Dam has deepened regional fault lines. Built on the Blue Nile, the dam threatens Egypt's water supply for tens of millions; the resulting cold war splits the two countries on Somalia policy, Sudanese civil war alignment, and relations with Israel — Egypt opposing Israel while Ethiopia quietly supports it.
• 8.In late December 2025, Saudi Arabia forcibly expelled the UAE from Yemen after the STC declared South Arabian independence. Riyadh issued a 24-hour evacuation ultimatum, bombed the port of Mukalla, and the STC disbanded January 9, 2026 — representing the most public Saudi-UAE feud yet and leaving Yemen split between Saudi and Iranian-backed factions.