Will Iran War Cause AI BUBBLE COLLAPSE?

TL;DR

Closing the Strait of Hormuz could spike energy costs and trigger an AI bubble burst, while the Pentagon's AI push removes critical safety guardrails.

Key Points

• 1.The Trump administration is quietly advancing a contracting clause to strip AI safety protocols. A draft text reviewed by The Lever shows federal officials could force AI companies to scrap safety measures and privacy protections as a condition of government contracts, with Anthropic labeled a national security supply chain risk for refusing.
• 2.AI integration into military operations is accelerating dangerously without adequate control. Claude was reportedly used in the Venezuela Maduro raid; experts warn AI hallucinations could produce false target packages, with a girls' school already struck on day one of the Iran campaign despite alleged human oversight.
• 3.The Iran war threatens to pop the AI bubble through energy and supply chain shocks. The FT reports Strait of Hormuz closure could raise energy prices, disrupt semiconductor mineral supply chains, and collapse the Gulf Arab VC investments propping up high-tech valuations and U.S. stock markets.
• 4.AI-driven job losses are already measurable, with 100,000 jobs lost tracked so far. Jobloss.ai documents displacement concentrated in software engineering — where 90% of coding is now AI-generated — as well as white-collar administration, consulting, accounting, and entry-level legal work facing hiring freezes.
• 5.AI is catastrophically destabilizing information reality with no legislative response. Deepfake uncertainty around Netanyahu's alleged death and the new Ayatollah Khamenei's whereabouts illustrate how state and non-state disinformation campaigns, amplified by AI, are making verifiable truth nearly impossible ahead of the 2026 midterms.