Can the British Reopen the Strait of Hormuz? || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Britain cannot reopen the Strait of Hormuz because almost no non-US navy has the ships, range, or amphibious capacity to enforce safe passage.

Key Points

• 1.Only three navies can meaningfully project power to the Persian Gulf. The US, UK, and Japan are the only countries with true long-range naval capability; France and China have sharply limited range, and most nations gave up serious navies under post-WWII US security guarantees.
• 2.Even a combined non-US coalition fleet would be outgunned by what America already has on station. Decades of US-provided security meant allies never built deep-water power-projection fleets, and new naval development won't yield meaningful results before the end of the decade.
• 3.Securing the strait requires occupying a coastline the length of New York City to Savannah. Iran uses drones with 200–600 mile range instead of ships, so safe escort requires bombarding or physically occupying the Iranian coastline — a task beyond any non-US military's amphibious capacity.
• 4.The only realistic solution is a political deal with Iran, not a military one. Every US defense and intelligence chief since 1979 warned presidents that war with Iran creates unavoidable consequences; Trump ignored those warnings, leaving diplomacy as the sole viable path.