Ukraine Strikes Hit Baltic Export Facilities || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Ukraine's drone attack on Russia's Primorsk and Luga Baltic oil ports threatens 1.7 million barrels per day of exports, compounding a global oil supply crisis.

Key Points

• 1.Ukraine struck two major Russian Baltic oil facilities with 60 drones. The Primorsk and Luga loading terminals in Leningrad Province — which together handle 1.7M barrels/day of crude and 300K barrels/day of refined products — were hit, with fires reported and Primorsk remaining offline 24 hours later.
• 2.The strikes mark a significant range breakthrough for Ukraine. Leningrad Province sits ~700 miles from Ukraine, beyond the previously assumed ~600-mile drone range, meaning Ukraine has developed a new, longer-range drone platform capable of sustained volleys.
• 3.Combined with the Persian Gulf going offline, global oil supply faces a catastrophic shortfall. Russia exports via three routes — Black Sea (already under attack), Far East (out of range), and Baltic (now vulnerable) — potentially removing ~4M barrels/day of Russian supply on top of ~20M barrels/day lost from the Persian Gulf, leaving only North American shale intact.