The Xi-Trump Meeting: Who Has the Upper Hand? | WSJ

TL;DR

Xi holds the upper hand due to China's rare earth leverage, while Trump enters confident in personal diplomacy and claims victory regardless of outcome.

Key Points

• 1.Xi enters with the upper hand after China's rare earth retaliation forced a U.S. retreat. When Trump's tariffs exceeded 100% on Chinese goods, China restricted rare earth exports and the Trump administration backed down immediately, demonstrating China's effective economic leverage.
• 2.Iran gives Xi additional negotiating power without requiring him to act. China imports 12% of its oil from Iran, making the conflict a headache, but Xi can offer to broker talks with Iran while demanding concessions from Trump in return — leverage without commitment.
• 3.Taiwan is surprisingly a secondary issue, but Xi may push for a language shift. Trump frames Taiwan as geographically distant and avoids defense commitments; Xi may pressure him to move from 'does not support Taiwanese independence' to actively 'opposing' it — a subtle but significant semantic change.
• 4.China's long-term strategy is simply to outlast Trump. Beijing knows Trump has a limited remaining term, so their goal is to placate him, avoid becoming a primary target, and continue building capabilities while waiting for the next U.S. administration.