Game Theory #16: Pax Judaica Rising

TL;DR

Israel is positioned to replace American imperial dominance in the Middle East as the US military's corruption, hubris, and lack of political will cause it to lose the Iran war.

Key Points

• 1.The US entered the Iran war expecting quick surrender but was caught off guard. Trump admitted America didn't expect Iran to fight back, close the Strait of Hormuz, or strike Qatar, Bahrain, and Kuwait.
• 2.America's war strategy forces narrative, politics, and economics to serve military goals — Iran does the reverse. Iran uses its military to strengthen its economy, split GCC alliances, and win global opinion, giving it far more strategic flexibility.
• 3.The US military-industrial complex is designed to steal taxpayer money, not win wars. Julian Assange is cited: the MIC's goal is never-ending wars to transfer funds to a transnational elite; America spends 41% of all global military spending yet fields ineffective systems.
• 4.Flagship US weapons have failed in the Iran conflict. The $13B Gerald Ford carrier retreated within 3 weeks, the $100M F-35 was shot down by Iran, and Patriot missile systems cannot stop cheap Iranian drones.
• 5.America faces three structural constraints that will cost it this war. Only 40% of Americans support the conflict, manufacturing capacity cannot replenish expended munitions quickly enough, and the Pentagon fears reporting casualties due to political backlash.
• 6.Iran gained massive economic windfalls as a direct result of the war. The US unsanctioned Iranian oil to manage Hormuz supply disruptions, delivering Iran $14B instantly — more than its entire $10B annual military budget.
• 7.Larry Fink of BlackRock warned that sustained Hormuz closure could push oil above $150 and trigger a global recession. He argued the war must be fought to conclusion, though the presenter notes the war itself created the Hormuz threat.
• 8.Israel is 'auditioning' to replace America as the Middle East empire by demonstrating unity, determination, and cost-effective operations. 82% of Israelis support Gaza expulsions, and the 2024 Lebanon pager attack — costing only $275M — demonstrated strategic precision the US cannot match.
• 9.The Greater Israel Project envisions territorial control from the Nile to the Euphrates, but Iran is not on the map. Israel's real strategic obstacle is removing American bases from the Middle East; Iran is being used as the mechanism to overextend and expel the US.
• 10.Post-war, a Pax Judaica trade network and an Iran-centered Eurasian corridor would form two competing regional orders. Per game theory, strong powers (Israel and Iran) will eventually cooperate against weak GCC states, while China's Belt and Road and the India-Middle East-Europe corridor place both nations at the center of global trade.