What happened last time we ran out of oil | If You're Listening

TL;DR

The 1970s oil crises caused by US Middle East policy failures mirror today's crisis, as Trump broke decades of careful balance between Israeli security and oil supply.

Key Points

• 1.The US has long tried to balance two competing Middle East interests. Since WWII, Washington has simultaneously committed to Israel's survival and ensuring unimpeded oil flow through the Strait of Hormuz — two goals that repeatedly collide.
• 2.The 1953 CIA coup in Iran planted the seeds of later oil crises. The CIA, codenamed by operative Kermit Roosevelt, overthrew democratically elected PM Mosaddegh to prevent oil nationalization, installing the Shah as a western puppet — a regime that later collapsed in 1979.
• 3.The 1973 Yom Kippur War forced Nixon to choose Israel over oil, triggering OPEC's embargo. Kissinger resupplied Israel despite Saudi warnings; OPEC retaliated by cutting production 5% monthly, shocking Western economies dependent on Gulf oil.
• 4.The oil crises caused extraordinary domestic disruption across the world. The US mandated 68°F thermostats, banned Christmas lights, rationed police car fuel; Australia rationed petrol by license plate number; Japan turned off Tokyo's neon lights; India's PM rode a horse-drawn carriage.
• 5.Every US president from Clinton to Biden carefully preserved the oil-Israel balance. Despite Netanyahu's persistent lobbying to prioritize Israeli security over oil stability, multiple administrations resisted escalation that would jeopardize Persian Gulf supply.
• 6.Trump broke the decades-long balancing act by siding with Netanyahu without economic preparation. Unlike Nixon in 1973 — when Israel faced genuine existential threat — Trump joined Israel's attack on Iran without hedging against oil disruption, risking a repeat 1970s-style crisis.