Winners and Losers of the Iran War: Ukraine and Russia || Peter Zeihan

TL;DR

Ukraine is unexpectedly winning from the Iran war via Gulf investment in drones, while Russia suffers critical oil export losses from Ukrainian strikes.

Key Points

• 1.Russia's oil windfall is being destroyed by Ukrainian drone strikes. Ukraine targeted Russian Baltic Sea export infrastructure, eliminating 1.5–2 million barrels/day of exports; within 3 months, both Baltic and Black Sea Russian exports may be wiped out entirely.
• 2.Ukraine is securing multi-billion dollar Gulf Arab investment deals for drone production. Zelensky signed deals with Kuwait, Qatar, UAE, and Saudi Arabia to fund Ukrainian drone factories, solving Ukraine's cash shortage and expanding its proven low-cost Brave One counter-drone system (costing $2–3K vs. $30–50K for a Shahed).
• 3.Russia's active military assistance to Iran is reshaping geopolitical alignments against it. Russian intelligence, techniques, and hardware helped Iran target US forces, angering the Pentagon and Congress and pushing Gulf Arab states to explore anti-Russia alliances reminiscent of the 1985 Saudi oil-flood that helped bankrupt the Soviet Union.
• 4.The broader oil disruption underpins all these shifts. The region dropped from 22 million to 10–12 million barrels/day exported; shortages will persist 9+ months post-conflict, with Iraqi production offline for over 2 years, driving prices well above $100/barrel and reshaping every party's strategic calculus.